Sunday, 5 January 2014

Who is qualified to succeed Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as CBN Governor?

As the current governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) prepares to take his exit by May (2014) ending, various names have come up as potential replacement.  It is important to state that the position of a CBN governor is not a ceremonial position. It is a position of huge significance to the wellbeing of every Nigerian.

The CBN governor holds the economy of the nation in his/her hands. The President of the country is often blamed when the economy is bad, but the man or woman that should get a good chunk of the stick for a bad economy is the governor of the Central Bank. His or her actions and inactions have a life and death hold on the Nigerian economy. By manipulating the cost of money in the economy, he or she can create wealth or destroy wealth.

In Nigeria, the governor is often (over) identified with bank regulation than his or her core function of price stability. So it is not surprising, that often when the position of the Central Bank governor comes up, practicing or retired bankers are touted as the likely candidates to pick up the position. Charles/Chukwuma Soludo seems to have been the obvious exception.

So as President Jonathan prepares to make a decision on who should head the CBN starting June 2014, the BIG question is what should be the ideal qualifications of the CBN Governor? In answering this question, I have decided to examine the profiles of the people that some countries selected recently to lead their Central Banks in  key economies around the world.  

United States of America (USA)
Last year, President Obama nominated Janet Yellen to head its Federal Reserve Bank, which is the equivalent of Nigeria’s Central Bank. Yellen, has a PHD in Economics. Her brief profile reads like this. 

 Born in Brooklyn, New York, in 1946, Janet Yellen earned a bachelor's degree from Brown University in 1967. She then went to Yale University, where she received her Ph.D. in 1971. After completing her Ph.D., she spent several years as an assistant professor at Harvard University, moving from there to work at the Federal Reserve from 1977 to 1978, and then became a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. From 1997 to 1999, she served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and in 2004, she became President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In 2010, Yellen was selected to serve as vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Over her lengthy career, Yellen has penned numerous papers and publications, including some co-authored with her husband, Nobel Prize-winning economist and UC Berkeley professor George Akerlof. She has also received numerous accolades for her contributions to the field of economics. She served as a Guggenheim Fellow in the mid-1980s, and received the Wilbur Lucius Cross Medal from Yale University in 1997.

Israel
October 2013, Israel also appointed a woman, Dr. Karnit Flug to head Bank of Israel which is also the equivalent of Nigeria’s Central Bank. Flug has her doctorate at Columbia University and served as an IMF economist before joining the Bank of Israel in the 1980's.


Flug completed her doctorate at New York's Columbia University and worked at the International Monetary Fund as an economist and later as a senior research economist at the Inter-American Development Bank. She was appointed director of the research department at the Bank of Israel in 2001. She was Deputy Governor and then acting Governor before her elevation. 

United Kingdom
In 2013, the British government tapped a Canadian, Mark Carney, to head the Bank of England, which is also the equivalent of Nigeria’s Central Bank. He was actually the Governor of the Bank of Canada where he served five years of seven term tenure before emerging the governor the of Bank of England.


Mark Carney has a Barchelors Degree in economics from Harvard University and crowned it with a Masters Degree and Doctorate in Economics from Oxford University. He is largely credited for protecting the Canadian economy from the 2007 global financial crisis.

Carney has served as Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and as a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He has been instrumental in leading economies to introduce and coordinate a raft of new financial regulations. Carney is also a member of the Group of Thirty, and of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum.

Ghana
In 2013, the Ghanaian government confirmed Dr. Henry Kofi Wampah as head of the Central Bank, Bank of Ghana.


Prior to his appointment at the bank, Dr. Wampah was the Director of the Research and Statistics Department at the West African Monetary Institute. He also worked as the Head of the Research Department of Bank of Ghana from February 1996 to February 2001, as well as working with the International Monetary Fund. Dr Wampah holds a Masters Degree and a Ph.D in Economics from McGill University, Montreal CANADA.


Common in  these profiles is a strong academic qualification in economics of all the appointees. But it is not just the qualification, but also the extensive experience in the field of economics in and outside academics. My take is that it important, a Central Bank Governor has a deep understanding of economics because his or her primary duty is the economy. A Nigerian Central Bank Governor should not be less qualified both academically and in practical experience if we want to compete in a global world. 

Monday, 17 June 2013

Banks Dominate the Nigerian Financial System


As BusinessDay prepares for its maiden banking awards this weekend, the International Monetary fund (IMF) has released its latest assessment of the Nigerian financial industry and concludes that Nigerian banks are in position to withstand significant shocks to their balance sheets. However, what emerges from the IMF report also is the fact that banks remain dominant in the Nigerian financial system, though pension funds are showing some muscle.

Some significant numbers in the IMF data stands out. First, is the significant growth in the asset base of Nigerian banks between 2006 and 2011. Within the period, the total assets of the banking system has tripled from N6.74 trillion to N18.5 trillion representing a growth rate of 174 per cent. The increase has not however come from an increase in the number of banks as the number of banks in the financial system actually dropped from 25 in 2006 to 20 in 2011.
So what has happened within the period is that  fewer number of banks have essentially grown to be bigger taking on greater capacity to finance the Nigerian economy which has also witnessed significant growth within the same period.
Banking dominance of the Nigerian financial system has however dropped within the period. Banks in 2011 controlled 78.7 per cent of the financial system asset compared to 90.5 per cent of the financial system assets in 2011. The new elephant in the room muscling out the banking system dominance of the Nigerian financial system are the pension funds. The pension funds have grown from having just 4 per cent of financial system assets in 2006 to now having 12.1 per cent with total assets of pension funds rising from N300 billion in 2006 to N2.84 trillion in 2011.
This is good for the Nigerian economy as it represents the significant emergence of alternative funding for economic growth. It is even more significant considering that pension funds can conveniently provide funds the long term which commercial banks are not structured to do.
Other players in the Nigerian financial system have however not been able to match the significant growth rate recorded by pension funds. The insurance sector is important sector of the Nigerian financial system that is still lagging behind despite the significant growth in the Nigerian economy. Though the IMF data does not have comparable figures for 2006, the Nigerian insurance sector controlled just 2.6 per cent of the total financial systems assets of 2011. This is just slightly more than the size of financial system assets controlled by the smallest bank in Nigeria. The insurance sector is seen to be challenged by a general attitude by Nigerians towards taking up insurance policies especially Life Policies as well as low capital and lack of innovation by insurance companies.
Other Non-bank financial institutions control just 6.6 per cent of the financial system, up from 5.5 per cent in 2006. There are about 112 finance companies operating in the Nigerian financial system but they control less than one per cent of the financial industry. There are also about 254 securities firms but the IMF has no data on their market share though their market share is likely to be above one per cent either.
Fund managers are the dominant players in the non-bank financial institutions make segment controlling 4.6 per cent of the assets held in that segment of the market. Mortgage finance institutions and Microfinance banks are also key players in the non-banking financial institutions category but they control less than two per cent of the total financial industry assets as of 2011.
The insignificant share of the non-bank segment in the Nigerian financial industry means that banks have the burden of funding all aspects of the Nigerian economy including funding sectors where they have no clear expertise or even sectors that their balance sheets are not structured to support.
The long term solution is boosting the capacity of the non-banking financial sector to be able to provide alternative funding to economy. Already, the different regulators are implementing several reforms in the different sectors. For example, the no premium, no cover and compulsory insurance initiatives by National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) will significant boost the financial stability of Nigerian insurance companies if implemented to the letter. Also, the CBN is pushing for the recapitalization of Primary Mortgage Institutions (PMIs), an initiative that could see to the significant reduction of the number players in the sector and hopefully result in the emergence of stronger and more adequately capitalized players that can competitively create more mortgage assets.

But while the reforms are still in progress, the banks remain the dominant players in the Nigerian banking industry saddled with the gains and risks of supporting all sectors of the Nigerian economy. The implication is that they make all the profits in the Nigerian financial system and carry all the risks. Hence, when the banks sneeze, the Nigerian economy catches cold. 
This article was first published in BusinessDay 

Sunday, 4 November 2012

The high level intrigues scuttling Manitoba’s takeover of TCN


High level intrigue at the Ministry of Power is preventing   Canadian based Manitoba Electric to formally take over the management of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).

The Intrigues have led to Nigeria’s Minister of State of Power redeployed to the Ministry of the Niger Delta while the Minister of State for Niger Delta was brought in to oversee the power sector.  The Vice President, who sit atop the National Council for Privatization (NCP) is also said have grown  cold feet over the deal despite being head of the NCP that approved it earlier in the year.
Namadi Sambo, Nigeria's vice President and Chairman of the National Council on Privatization (NCP)

 The Minister of State for Power and the permanent secretary at the Ministry, Dere Awosika, are said to be putting bottlenecks in the pathway of Manitoba from taking over TCN threatening the Federal Government’s reform programme in the sector. The Minister is said to have declined to sign the necessary documents that will formalize the handover of TCN to Manitoba two months after TCN should have been handed over to the company.  The Minister is insisting that the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE) should have obtained a no objection notice from the Bureau for Public Procurement (BPP).

There is no explanation on why the NCP that approved the deal did not ask the BPE to obtain the approval of the BPP before signing the concession deal with Manitoba.  Now that Manitoba signed the deal and moved in to begin the work of transforming Nigeria’s power sector, suddenly the due process argument is being used to block the company.

The President is said to have been told that TCN has been sold to Manitoba and that due process was not followed in the emergence of Manitoba. Following the allegation, the President has directed that the matter be looked into. Acting on the President’s order, the Permanent secretary is said to have issued a memo to the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE) demanding an explanation of the process that led to the emergence of Manitoba as the management contractor for TCN.

BPE is however at a loss on how to respond to the memo since the Minister of State for Power, who the Permanent Secretary reports to is a member of the National Council of Privatisation (NCP) that approved Manitoba’s bid to manage TCN and therefore actively participated in the process that led to the emergence of Manitoba that a subordinate is now questioning.

TCN is currently operating under two CEOs. One appointed by the Government and the other by Manitoba. 
The current situation could force Manitoba to declare a Force Majeure on the contract to manage TCN, said a legal practitioner familiar with the terms of the contract between the Federal Government and the TCN.  According to the lawyer, the terms of the contract are one of the best the Federal Government could have gotten from the deal. 

If Manitoba declares a Force Majeure it will delay Nigeria’s dream of stable power supply if not resolved as the independence of the transmission company is critical to the power reform programme of the government.  
A non-autonomous TCN will impact negatively on the business plans and projections of the winners of the five Generation Companies and 10 Distribution companies unveiled recently by the National Council on Privatisation (NCP), said our sources.

The TCN will act as an independent arbiter between the Generation Companies and the Distribution Companies, confirming actual power that is purchased by the Distribution Companies from the Generating Companies.  “You cannot have that company controlled by the Government or being dictated to by the Minister of Power which will be like the Ministry of Finance asking commercial banks what businesses to fun and not fund. No one is going to invest in power generation under such circumstances,” our source said. Investors are highly concerned about the current impasse. 

The Ministry is however keen on delaying the process because TCN is the last control they have over the power sector. If TCN goes, they will no longer have any form of control over the sector, depriving them of a source of revenue that they have milked in the past.

“We are aware that Manitoba Electric has not fully taken over TCN. There are issues that have to do with process and the issues are receiving the attention of the President and Attorney General is involved in the resolution” said Sam Amadi , Chairman Nigeria Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC). 

Atedo Peterside, Chairman, Technical Committee of the NCP, also acknowledged that there appear to be some bottlenecks but would not be dragged into a debate over which government department or official is responsible for the logjam.

“NCP’s work is to decide on who is to take up a government asset and then it moves on” He said.
Nigeria is estimated to currently have the capacity to transmit just 5,838MVA with a transmission backbone of just 4534km. This means significant investments will be needed in the transmission sector to boost transmission capacity if the government target of 10,000MW by 2015 is to be achieved.

Manitoba is said to be considering withdrawing from the management contract it signed with the Federal Government if the situation persists, sources say. The situation as it is today is that Manitoba is not legally in charge of TCN until the Minister signs the necessary documents. This has made Manitoba’s continuous stay in the process untenable, said sources.

If Manitoba is forced out of the TCN contract, it will be the third company that has had to be dropped from a management contract with TCN. Initial efforts to get Eskom of South Africa and an Indian company to manage TCN also failed.  This will further add to the perception of the high political risk of doing business in Nigeria with consistent failure by government functionaries to adhere to the terms of contracts willingly entered into.

But Amadi says that there is no fear of Manitoba exiting. “In a few days, I expect there will be some clarity on the issues.  Our concern was that the TCN should have a board, and the Federal Government has agreed to set it up”

BusinessDay reports that a former banker with many years of experience has been appointed as the chairman of the proposed board. The President is said to have given the ministry to go ahead to announce the board but the Ministry is delaying the announcement on the pretext that they are still investigating the process that led to the emergence of Manitoba as the management company for TCN.

Atedo Peterside also expressed similar optimism that Manitoba Electric will not leave saying he was confident that the President was working on a quick resolution of the impasse.

Manitoba had earlier in the year signed a US$23 million three year contract to manage TCN.
“MHI expects to turn TCN into a technically and financially efficient, stable, and sustainable company; a company that will be market-driven and capable of utilizing its maximum generation capacity and then distributing the energy throughout Nigeria 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,”  the company’s website stated after the deal was signed.
.
Canada based MHI comes with a strong pedigree in the electricity sector. It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of one of the largest and longest-standing electric power utilities in Canada, Manitoba Hydro. Manitoba Hydro was established in 1880 and currently holds assets approaching $13 billion, with $2.4 billion in annual revenues, and over 6,200 employees.

It is a major power utility, involved in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of all elements of power infrastructure, according to the statement obtained from the company’s website.
 As a utility operator, Manitoba Hydro serves over 537,000 electricity customers and 265,000 natural gas customers. In addition, Manitoba Hydro exports up to 40% of its energy production to the North American marketplace, which includes over 35 utilities and marketers in the mid-western USA, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. 

 MHI has provided utility and asset management; consulting; and training solutions to over 70 countries worldwide.  In Africa, MHI has electricity projects in Ghana, Liberia, and Uganda among other countries.

A slightly different version of this story has been published in BusinessDay

This blogger had earlier written on the challenges that Manitoba is likely to face  managing TCN. Click the link below to read my earlier post.  



Wednesday, 10 October 2012

Australian Firm to exploit Nigeria’s Iron Ore deposits


An Australian firm, Energio Limited has completed plans to exploits Nigeria’s rich Iron Ore deposits.
Energio Limited, which is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (NSE) expects to start exporting its first iron ore shipment in 2014 with a target of 20 million tonnes, according to a report in the Australian, an Australian newspaper, which first carried the report.

The iron ore the company is set to exploit is located in Agbaja, in Kogi State with an estimated deposits of 448 million tonnes, according to a document on the company’s website.

At a current market price of about US$ 120 per tonne, the value of the iron ore deposits at Abaja will have a market value of US$53.8 billion or N8.06 trillion.

Iron ore is the raw material smelted to produce pig iron (metallic iron), which is used to make steel. It is an important metal used in developed and developing economies.  China is reported to have plans of importing up to 400 million tonnes of Iron Ore per annum from Africa from next year.

Speaking to the Australian, Ian Burston, the non-executive Chairman of Energio Limited stated that he expects the price of Iron Ore will stabilise at around $US120 a tonne.

And even if it drops to $US80 a tonne, as some predict, he insists he won't be worried because his planned Agbaja iron ore mine in Nigeria will still make a very handy profit at that price, he told the Australian.
"I've done my figures on (the cost of) getting it onto the ship and it's less than $US50 a tonne," he says. "If the iron ore price goes down to $US80 a tonne, that's not going to worry me.

"Twenty million tonnes a year at $US30 a tonne is a profit of $US600m a year."

"The biggest problem we've got is everyone who doesn't know how to spell iron ore is telling us how to do it."

"Once we are successful, then the floodgates (in Nigeria) will open, because there's so much iron there you can't ignore it." Ian Buston was quoted by the Australian as saying.

Indications are that Energio will likely discover more iron deposits on its Agbaja site. The company says that there is “considerable opportunity for resource growth.” The 488 million tonnes of Iron Ore discovered is currently on a site of just about 14.7km square which is just 15% of the potential exploration site of 90km square that Energio is set to explore for Iron Ore deposits.

Energio holds 15 granted Nigerian Exploration Licenses, which cover a total area of  448 km square, The company notes that of special interest to it are eight exploration licenses covering 303km square including the Agbaja project, considered to have prospects of more iron ore deposits. The company expects that an average of 151 km square of the exploration site will likely have deposits of iron ore, presenting it a substantial potential to significantly increase its iron ore inventory in Nigeria, according to a document on Energio Limited website. 

Other Nigerian towns with significant deposits of are Tajimi, Itakpe, Ajabanoko, Ochokochoko Toto, Farin Ruwa, Birnin Gwari, Maru, Jamare, Kaura Namoda, Kakun, Isanlu, Roni, and Ogbomosho areas. Other areas in Nigeria with significant iron deposits include Agbaja, Kotonkarfi, Nsudde areas in the Northern central and South Eastern zones of the country respectively, according to information available on the Website of the Nigerian Ministry of Solid Mineral Resources, titled Iron Ore Opportunities in Nigeria.
The deposits are mainly found in Mid Niger basin, Benue trough, Anambra basin, Sokoto, Chad and Niger Delta basins and the Lokoja Okene axis. The numbers provided by the Nigerian Ministry of Solid Mineral Resources on its “Iron Ore Exploration Opportunities in Nigeria” document on its website were non-responsive when BusinessDay called.

Nigeria’s Ajaokuta Steel Company was built mainly to exploit Nigeria’s rich Iron Ore deposits but has been unable to do that profitably. 

The above article was first published in BusinessDay on October 7, 2012

Saturday, 4 August 2012

The names of the 54 companies bidding for Nigeria’s power distribution companies



Nigeria’s Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) yesterday evening released a list of the 54 companies bidding for the 11 power distribution companies created from the unbundling of Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN).

S/N
DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES
NO OF BIDS  RECEIVED
NAME OF CONSORTIUM
1
Abuja Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
5
(1)Skipper Nigeria Ltd;(2) NAHCO Power Consortium; (3) KANN Consortium Utility Company Ltd; (4)Interstate Electrics Ltd; and (5)ENL Consortium Ltd.
2
Benin Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
7
(1)Southern Electricity Distribution Company; (2) Cable & Rods Company Nigeria Ltd; (3) Copper Belt Consortium; (4) Rockson Engineering Company Ltd; (5) RENSMART Power Ltd; (6) Duncan Freeman Company/Draytom Energy Ltd; and (7) Vigeo Power Consortium.
3
Enugu Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
4
(1)Rensmart Power Ltd; (2)Proglobal Power International Consortium;(3)Interstate Electrics Ltd; and (4) Eastern Electric Nigeria Ltd.
4
Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
9
(1)OANDO Consortium; (2)Integrated Energy Distribution & Marketing Ltd;(3) NPD Consortium; (4) SEPCO-Pacific Energy Consortium; (5)West Power & Gas; (6)Electric Utilities Nigeria Ltd; (7) KEPCO/NEDC Consortium; (8)ENL Consortium Ltd; and (9) Honeywell Energy Resources International Ltd.
5
Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
7
(1)Western Consortium; (2) ENL Consortium Ltd;(3) Integrated Energy Distribution & Marketing Ltd; (4)Skipper Nigeria Ltd; (5)ICOMM Energy Ltd; (6) Electric Utilities Ltd; (7) and KEPCO/NEDC Consortium.
6
Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
10
(1)Rockson Engineering Ltd; (2) SEO International; (3) OANDO Consortium; (4) Amperion Power Distribution Co Ltd; (5)Honeywell Energy Resources International Ltd; (6) Integrated Energy Distribution & Marketing Ltd; (7)West Power & Gas Ltd;  (8)Vigeo Holdings, Gumco, African Corporation AFC & CESC Consortium; (9) Daniel Power Plant Company Nigeria Ltd; and (10) KEPCO/NEDC Consortium.
7
Jos Electricity Distribution Company Plc
2
(1)Masters Energy Oil & Gas Ltd; and (2) Aura Energy Ltd.
8
Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
2
(1)NAHCO Energy & Power Ltd; and (2) Skipper Nigeria Ltd.
9
Kano Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
2
(1) Sahelian Power SPV Ltd; and (2)Profile Energy Consortium Ltd.
10
Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Company Plc 
3
(1)Utility Integrated Management Services Ltd; (2) Rockson Engineering Company Ltd; and (3)4Power Consortium.
11
Yola Electricity Distribution Company Plc.
3
(1)SNECOU Group of Companies Ltd; (2)Vivadis Power Ltd (ORTECH Consortium); and (3)Integrated Energy Distribution & Marketing Ltd.
                               TOTAL
54




The release states that prospective core investors, who must be local and/or international power distributors or investors with power distributors as technical partners, will be responsible for operating the distribution companies, making the necessary investments to improve the distribution network and customer service in line with the objectives of the Federal Government of Nigeria.

According to the transaction deadline, the evaluation of the technical bids will take place between August 14 and 28, 2012. The National Council on Privatisation (NCP) will approve the results of the technical evaluation by September 11, 2012.

The deadline for the shortlisted bidders for generation companies to submit their letters of credit is September 18, 2012 while October 2, 2012 is the deadline for shortlisted bidders for distribution companies.

Consequently, NCP’s approval will pave way for the opening of financial bids of the shortlisted investors.

The BPE will on September 25, 2012 open the financial bids of prospective investors for the generating companies while October 10, 2012 is the date for the opening of the financial bids for the distribution companies.

The announcement of the preferred bidders for the generating companies is October 9, 2012 while October 23, 2012 is the date for the announcement of the preferred bidders for the distribution companies. 

The Nigerian electricity industry has been unbundled into generation and distribution companies and a single transmission company with a view to encouraging private sector participation and attracting foreign and local investment into the Nigerian power sector to ensure economic and reliable electricity supply.

Tuesday, 31 July 2012

54 investors bid for 11 electricity distribution companies in Nigeria


Nigeria’s power reform process is on track as the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE) announced this evening that it has received bids from 54 investors for 11 electricity distribution companies put up for privatisation. Today was the deadline set by the BPE to receive technical and financial proposals from investors interested in buying the distribution companies unbundled from the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN).

Namadi Sambo, Nigeria's Vice President and Chairman National Council on Privatization

The Federal Government of Nigeria intends to sell as much as 70% of its stakes in the distribution companies to interested investors.  The Nigerian government hopes that selling the electricity companies will not only bring the required efficiency in their management but also attract the significant level of investment required to meet Nigeria’s electricity needs.

Nigeria current produces less than 5000MW of electricity against an estimated need of about 30,000MW.

The breakdown of the bids received by the BPE shows that five companies are bidding for Abuja Electricity Distribution Company Plc, Seven companies are bidding for Benin Electricity Distribution Company Plc, Three Companies are bidding for Enugu Electricity Distribution Company Plc, Nine Companies are bidding for Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc while Seven Companies are bidding for the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company Plc.

Ten companies are bidding for Ikeja Electricity Distribution Company Plc, Two Companies each are bidding for  Jos Electricity Distribution Company Plc, Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company Plc and Kano Electricity Distribution Company Plc. Also Three companies each are bidding for Port Harcourt Distribution Company and Yola Electricity Distribution Company Plc. 

The BPE guidelines states that prospective core investors must be local and/or international power distributors or investors with power distributors as technical partners. The investors will be responsible for operating the distribution companies, making the necessary investments to improve the distribution network.

The transaction timeline reveals that the evaluation of the technical bids will take place between August 14 and 28, 2012. The National Council on Privatisation (NCP) will approve the results of the technical evaluation by September 11, 2012.

The deadline for the shortlisted bidders for generation companies to submit their letters of credit is September 18, 2012 while October 2, 2012 is the deadline for shortlisted bidders for distribution companies.

 NCP’s approval will pave way for the opening of financial bids of the shortlisted investors.
The BPE will on September 25, 2012 open the financial bids of prospective investors for the generating companies while October 10, 2012 is the date for the opening of the financial bids for the distribution companies.

The announcement of the preferred bidders for the generating companies is October 9, 2012 while October 23, 2012 is the date for the announcement of the preferred bidders for the distribution companies. 

The Nigerian electricity industry has been unbundled into generation and distribution companies and a single transmission company with a view to encouraging private sector participation and attracting foreign and local investment into the Nigerian power sector to ensure economic and reliable electricity supply


Sunday, 29 July 2012

Can Manitoba deliver on Nigeria’s electricity needs?


Canadian based Manitoba Hydro International (MHI) takes over the management of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) today and the question on the minds of most Nigerians is if the company can deliver on its promises.
President Goodluck Jonathan 

In a press release on its website, the company has already outlined its plans for the TCN. MHI says it would be targeting three functional areas in the management of TCN operations. The three key functions that MHI plans to reform in the operation of TCN are its Market Operator (MO), System Operator (SO), and Transmission Service Provider (TSP) functions.

During the term of the three year contract, which will cost the Nigerian government $23 million, a key objective for MHI will be to reorganize TCN such that the TSP becomes a separate entity from the MO and SO allowing it to become commercial company.

“MHI expects to turn TCN into a technically and financially efficient, stable, and sustainable company; a company that will be market-driven and capable of utilizing its maximum generation capacity and then distributing the energy throughout Nigeria 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,” states the press release from MHI.  

A big challenge with the Nigerian power system, say those familiar with the sector, is the inefficiency of the transmission system resulting in a good chunk of the electricity generated being wasted.

 To resolve Nigeria power transmission challenge, MHI says it will have to focus on developing the capability of local personnel.

Specifically, MHI states that during the term of its contract it would be hoping to ensure a reliable, efficient, and cost-effective network for the transmission of electrical energy and help facilitate the increased availability and reliability of high voltage electricity throughout Nigeria.
Develop TCN’s technical, financial, and managerial capability to build for its long-term future and sustainability.

Improve financial management and increase profitability in line with modern business practices, ensuring the commercial viability of TCN and creating an environment conducive to private sector investment.
Develop an organizational structure for TCN such that the electricity transmission business (i.e. the Transmission Service Provider) can be separated from the MO and SO activities and incorporated into a distinct commercial TSP company, capable of being privatised on a long-term concession. The reorganisation will enable the MO and SO activities to operate as separate entities or as an Independent Systems Operation (ISO) company with two distinct units.

 Introduce appropriate modern business practices and effective application of information and communications technology; improve the overall efficiency and skills of the local personnel so that they may fully contribute to the effective management, operation, and performance of the company.

MHI’s main challenge however will be in tackling Nigeria’s aged powered transmission lines. A 2009 paper by Sunday Onohaebi of the University of Benin discloses that the last transmission line was built in 1987. The paper reveals that there were about 4,144 power outages in 2005, with the most common cause of power outages being “transmission line constraints, shunt reactor problems, overloading of transformers and vandalisation of transmission lines”

The challenges are steep. Just about 5.4 million Nigerian households are said to have access to the current epileptic power supply according to the Nigeria Electricity Regulation Commission (NERC).

Figures from NERC shows that Nigeria has installed generation capacity of 8,663MW but with only about half of this (4,300MW) available. On the transmission side, the country has the capacity to transmit just 5,838MVA with a transmission backbone of just 4534km. The challenge faced by Nigeria becomes glaring when it is realized that South Africa with a population of 50 million has installed capacity of 40,000MW while Egypt with a population of 85 million has installed capacity of about 30,000MW. The NERC estimates that Nigeria should currently be generating 100GW of electricity which would require total investment of $300 billion.

At the current rate of Nigeria’s economic growth of about 7% per annum, Nigeria’s energy demand is estimated to hit 28,360MW in 2015 and over 50,000MW by 2020. Nigeria currently generates less than 5,000MW. The government hopes that the current effort at privatising the power sector will create the needed platform to attract the much needed private sector capital to drive growth in the power sector and meet Nigeria’s energy needs. It is estimated that country will need about $40 billion of investments in the power sector between now and 2020 to attain the desired target 28,000MW.

The technical capacity of MHI to deliver is not in doubt. Canada based MHI comes with a strong pedigree in the electricity sector. It is a wholly-owned subsidiary of one of the largest and longest-standing electric power utilities in Canada, Manitoba Hydro. Manitoba Hydro was established in 1880 and currently holds assets approaching $13 billion, with $2.4 billion in annual revenues, and over 6,200 employees.

It is a major power utility, involved in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of all elements of power infrastructure, according to the statement obtained from the company’s website.
 As a utility operator, Manitoba Hydro serves over 537,000 electricity customers and 265,000 natural gas customers. In addition, Manitoba Hydro exports up to 40% of its energy production to the North American marketplace, which includes over 35 utilities and marketers in the mid-western USA, Ontario, and Saskatchewan

 MHI has provided utility and asset management; consulting; and training solutions to over 70 countries worldwide.  In Africa, MHI has electricity projects in Ghana, Liberia, and Uganda among other countries.

The biggest challenge however for MHI in its Nigeria’s operation, would most likely be navigating Nigeria political minefield where entrenched selfish interests will be waiting to discredit its operations for purely selfish motives. It is also not clear how much support the company will get from the federal and state governments in making the required investment in the transmission network to make the desired impact. 

Hopefully, MHI’s entrance into the Nigerian electricity sector will not end like that of Pentascope or Virgin Nigeria. Both ended very badly.  Nigeria needs MHI to succeed more than they need the $23 million management fee they are getting.